The Belief Debt Problem
📉 Why Funnels Collapse Before the Pitch Even Starts, Do faces really help YouTube thumbnails, and more!
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In this newsletter, you’ll find:
📉The Belief Debt Problem
🎥 Do faces really help YouTube thumbnails
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📉 The Belief Debt Problem
Most funnels fail not because they look bad, are slow, or have poor writing. They fail because they ask for belief too soon. This creates what we can call belief debt.
Belief debt begins when a funnel requires trust, understanding, or commitment before the visitor has enough evidence to support it. When that debt builds up faster than it is paid off, bouncing becomes inevitable.
Good creative work can’t fix this issue. It only speeds up the moment of failure.
How Belief Debt Actually Builds
Every ad sets up the visitor with certain expectations. It’s not just about the product; it’s also about why it works, who it’s for, and what results seem believable.
When a visitor clicks, the funnel takes on those expectations.
If the first scroll doesn’t confirm them, belief debt increases right away.
This is why visitors leave in under three seconds. They aren’t distracted; instead, the funnel contradicted what they expected to believe.
The page didn’t feel wrong. It felt unearned.
Why Proof Often Backfires
Many funnels respond to low conversion rates by adding more proof. They include more testimonials, more badges, and more logos. This often makes matters worse.
Proof only works when it comes before belief is required. When it appears after a bold claim, a price anchor, or a CTA, it feels like justification rather than validation. By then, belief debt has already built up.
The visitor isn’t asking, “Is this real?”
They’re asking, “Why am I being asked to trust this already?”
Mechanisms Are How Belief Gets Repaid
People don’t just buy results. They buy explanations that make sense. A mechanism isn’t a technical detail. It’s a stabilizer for belief.
If the main idea behind the product can’t be explained simply, the funnel depends on blind trust. Blind trust is rare in cold traffic.
The quickest way to pay back belief debt is with clarity:
- One simple explanation,
- One visual mental model,
- One analogy that makes the result seem inevitable.
Without this, no amount of urgency or persuasion will work. Friction Is Interest on Belief Debt
Every delay, extra step, or surprise cost makes cognitive effort go up.
Effort seems harmless on its own, but under belief debt, it becomes burdensome. Each additional second raises the internal question: “Is this worth it?”
This is why some funnel formats perform better than others. They don’t just segment users; they build belief before asking for action.
Funnels shouldn’t focus solely on conversion steps. They should focus on the sequence of belief.
At every stage, the question is simple:
“Has the belief needed for this action already been established?”
When belief is built before it’s demanded, conversion feels natural. When it isn’t, no creative approach can save the funnel. Belief debt doesn’t show up in analytics. It shows up in exits.
🎥 Do faces really help YouTube thumbnails
A viral idea suggested that creators should remove their faces from thumbnails to increase views. Recent data shared by Nate Curtiss at 1of10 Media tells a different story. Faces are not the issue, but they are not an easy solution either.
The Breakdown:
1. Faces have a neutral effect - Across 300,000 viral videos, thumbnails with faces and without faces performed similarly overall, showing that faces are common but do not guarantee success or failure.
2. Context changes the outcome - Faces tended to help larger channels and certain niches like Finance, while hurting others like Business, with thumbnails featuring multiple faces outperforming single face versions.
3. Watch time matters more than clicks - YouTube evaluates thumbnails based on watch time rather than CTR alone, meaning thumbnails that overpromise can earn clicks but lose distribution if viewers drop off early.
There is no universal thumbnail rule. Familiar faces work better for subscribers, while new viewers usually respond to clear ideas and emotional cues. Testing thumbnails based on watch time and overall packaging leads to better long-term performance.
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