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In this newsletter, youâll find:
đ¸ The numbers to know before you announce a price increase
đĄ AI is changing both how we understand information and how brands reach us
𼳠Tweet of the day
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đ¸ The numbers to know before you announce a price increase
Teams testing price increase emails usually ask which version keeps the most people. A better first question is how many people you can lose and still come out ahead.
Number 1: Your break-even churn
Going from $30 to $34, on revenue alone, you break even if you lose 11.8% of subscribers (4 á 34).
Now use contribution margin. If each box costs $18 to make and ship, margin rises from $12 to $16. You break even at a 25% loss (1 â 12 á 16).
A 10% cancellation spike feels like a crisis. On these numbers, itâs a profitable outcome.
Number 2: The sample you need
Survey results only help when differences are real. To reliably separate a 50% âwould stayâ score from 40%, you need about 390 people per version, at 95% confidence and 80% power.
At 100 per version, a 10-point gap can easily be noise.
Recruiting 390 people per version is the hard part, and SurveyMonkey takes it off your plate: you choose the audience, it recruits a paid panel matched to your buyers and analyzes up to 10 messages for you. You can get started for free.
Number 3: Your top-box stay rate
Set up the test so each person sees one email only. People who read every version start comparing framings, which a real subscriber reading one email never does.
Ask âHow likely are you to keep your subscription?â on a five-point scale, and compare versions on the top box alone: âdefinitely would keep.â Stated intent runs higher than real behavior, and the top box is the most trustworthy slice.
Also ask âHow fair does this change feel?â If a version wins on staying but trails another by more than 15 points on fairness, expect it to cost you at renewal. That cutoff is my judgment.
What to test
Plain notice of the new price
Cost explanation naming what got more expensive
Added value worth less than $4 to you
Loyalty lock holding the old price for three months
The rollout decision
Send the winner to 10% of subscribers. After 14 days, subtract your normal cancellation rate from that groupâs rate.
If the extra churn sits well under your break-even figure, send to everyone. If it gets close, switch to the runner-up for the next group.
Calculate both break-even numbers before anyone writes a word of the email. They decide how bold the message can be.
Together with Modash
You See Their Creator Campaigns. Now Hear Their Thinking.
A creator campaign can look great in your feed and still leave you wondering whether youâd pay to run it again.
Repeating that uncertainty with more creators gets expensive.
On October 21, Modashâs Return on Influence Festival â26 opens up how established teams run their programs, including the mistakes behind better campaigns.
Hereâs what youâll learn:
How teams run campaigns day-to-day, including what they changed after mistakes.
What creators want from brand partners so that you can approach collaborations from their side.
What it takes to scale from 5 to 5,000 creators before adding more to your own program.
Youâll hear from Maya Shaff, Head of Influencer at ĹURA, and Josh Rangel, Senior Director, Social Strategy at Ogilvy. More to be announced. Itâs online and free.
Reserve your spot for Oct 21st and leave with actionable insights to build and scale a creator program that moves the needle.
Canât attend every session live? Register anyway, and youâll get the recordings in 24 hours.
đĄ AI is changing both how we understand information and how brands reach us
Two updates show AI products evolving beyond text responses: Andrej Karpathy is pushing richer ways to learn from AI, while OpenAI is adding visual ads and deeper measurement to ChatGPT.
The Breakdown:
ChatGPT Gets Visual Ads - OpenAI will begin testing image-based ads during image generation later this month with select U.S. advertisers. Ads will be clearly labeled and separate from images generated by ChatGPT.
Advertisers Get Better Measurement - OpenAI is adding attribution, conversion and incrementality partners including AppsFlyer, Triple Whale, LiveRamp and Hightouch. Early partner data found WeightWatchersâ attributed CPA was 15.3% below its paid-search benchmark.
Make AI Easier to Read - Andrej Karpathy recommends asking models to write using ASD-STE100, an aerospace standard built around simple technical English. He says even following it â80% of the wayâ can make explanations easier to understand.
Go Beyond Text Answers - Karpathy suggests progressing from writing to diagrams, interactive HTML pages, and custom explainer videos. He expects more human work to shift toward âoversight and understandingâ as models handle execution.
AI interfaces are becoming more visual on both sides. Users can increasingly ask for diagrams, webpages, or videos instead of another wall of text, while ChatGPTâs 1.2 billion weekly users are giving advertisers a new visual surface with the measurement tools needed to test whether it actually drives sales.
đď¸ Tweet of the Day
𼳠Events
đĽ What Metaâs Partnership Ads Data Means for Your Next Test
Today | 11 AM ET | 60-Minute Virtual Event
Get Metaâs view on where Partnership Ads fit, why creator-handle delivery is changing performance, and how experienced advertisers are testing it in real accounts. Reyna Baker from Meta and Curtis Howland, who has managed $100M+ in spend, break down what deserves budget now.
Canât attend the session live? Register anyway, and youâll get the recordings in 24 hours.
đĽ What to Measure When AI Search Doesnât Get the Last Click
October 15 | Virtual Event
Matt Hammel, COO of AirOps, joins Zak Prauer, Expert Partner at Bain & Company, to show what citations alone miss, why recommendations matter more when buyers compare options, and how to judge AI search investment without waiting for perfect attribution.
Canât attend the session live? Register anyway, and youâll get the recordings in 24 hours.
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